Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Outline
Call Opening and Forward-Looking Statements
- 🎙️ Operator welcomes participants and introduces CFO Raul Jacob to discuss Q4 and full-year 2025 results.
- ⚠️ Forward-looking statements are subject to risks; actual results may differ and the company has no obligation to update them.
- 📊 All figures are presented under full U.S. GAAP before the call is handed to management.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:00:01]
Good morning and welcome to Southern Copper Corporation’s Fourth Quarter and Year 2025. With us this morning, we have Southern Copper Corporation, Mr. Raul Jacob, Vice President Finance, Treasurer and CFO, who will discuss the results of the company for the fourth quarter and year 2025, as well as answer any questions that you might have. The information discussed on today’s call may include forward-looking statements. Regarding the company’s results and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially and the company cautions to not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Southern Copper Corporation undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All results are expressed in full U.S. GAAP. Now I will pass the call on to Mr. Raúl Jacob.
Record 2025 Performance Overview
- 🏆 Company set new records for net sales of 7.8 billion, and net income of $4.3 billion.
- 📈 Results were driven by higher byproduct volumes and stronger prices across copper, zinc, silver, and molybdenum.
- 🎯 Long-term strategy remains focused on reaching 1.6 million tons of copper at the lowest competitive cost per pound.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:00:59]
Thank you very much, Gigi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Southern Copper Corporation’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call. At today’s conference, I’m accompanied by Mr. Oscar González Rocha, CEO of Southern Copper Corporation and board member, as well as Mr. Leonardo Contreras, who is also a board member. In today’s call, we will begin with an update on our view of the copper market and then review Southern Copper Corporation’s key results related to production, sales, operating costs, financial results, expansion projects, and ESG. After this, we will open the session for questions. Our performance in year 2025 delivered new company records for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income. These milestones are a testament to the strength of our strategy, execution, and commitment to sustainable growth. This strong performance was primarily driven by a rise in byproduct production and improved metal prices for all our products.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:02:05]
Mining zinc production rose 36% year-on-year, bolstered by an additional 52,500 tons from the Buenavista Zinc Concentrator. Mine silver production increased 15% in this year— in last year, primarily driven by higher production at all our mines. Molybdenum production was 31,200 tons in 2025, which was 7% above the figure in 2024. The combination of higher production volumes And better copper and byproduct prices enabled us to achieve record sales of 7.8 billion. That’s 22% on top of 2024. And net income of $4.3 billion, which is 28% higher than last— than 2024.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:03:09]
We remain firmly committed to enhancing productivity and cost efficiency, driven by a strategy anchoring discipline and focus on achieving a long-term goal to produce 1.6 million tons of copper at the lowest possible, most competitive cost per pound.
Copper Market Outlook and Pricing
- 💹 LME copper averaged 5.15/lb.
- 📉 Company estimates a 2026 copper market deficit of roughly 320,000 tons based on supply-demand dynamics.
- 📦 Global inventories across LME, COMEX, Shanghai and bonded warehouses equal about 14 days of demand.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:03:29]
Looking into the metal markets and prices. For copper, the London Metal copper price increased 21% from an average of 5.03 per pound this past quarter. For the COMEX market, we saw a 22% increase averaging during the past quarter $5.15 per pound. Based on current supply and demand dynamics, we’re currently estimating a copper market deficit of about 320,000 tons for 2026. Copper inventories worldwide, the sum of the London Metal Exchange, COMEX, and Shanghai and bonded warehouses, were as of January 26th, this is past— this past Monday, approximately 14 days of global demand.
Copper Production Results and 2026 Guidance
- ⛏️ Q4 copper production rose 1.4% to 242,172 tons on better grades at La Caridad, Toquepala, Cuajone and other mines.
- 📉 Full-year 2025 copper output fell 1.8% to 956,270 tons, slightly below the 965,000-ton plan.
- 🔮 2026 guidance is 911,400 tons, a 4.7% decline mainly due to lower ore grades at Peruvian operations.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:04:33]
Let’s look at Southern Copper Corporation for the past quarter. Copper represented 75% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2025. Copper production registered an increase of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of last year on a quarter-on-quarter terms to stand at 242,172 tons. Our quarterly results reflect higher production at our La Caridad, Toquepala, Coajone, and Inza mines, which was attributable to better ore grades and recoveries. These positive results were partially offset by a decrease in production at our Buenavista operation. For 2025, copper production decreased 1.8% to 956,270 soft tons. This figure is 1% lower than our 2025 plan of 965,000 tons.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:05:39]
Our year-on-year result reflects lower production at our Buenavista and the Peruvian mines, partially offset by a rise in production at our IMSA and La Caridad mines. For 2026, we expect to produce 911,400 tons of copper, which represents a decrease of 4.7% compared to 2025’s annual trend. This slight drop was primarily attributable to lower ore grades at our Peruvian operation.
Byproduct Production: Molybdenum, Silver and Zinc
- ⚙️ Molybdenum production rose 7% to 31,200 tons in 2025; 2026 guidance is 26,000 tons.
- 🥈 Silver mine output increased 15% to 24 million ounces in 2025, with 2026 expected near the same level.
- 🔩 Zinc mine production jumped 36% thanks to 52,500 extra tons from the Buenavista zinc concentrator.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:06:15]
For molybdenum, it represented 8% of the company’s sales value in the fourth quarter 2025 and is currently our first byproduct. Molybdenum prices averaged 21.61 in the fourth quarter of 2024. This represents an increase of 5%. Molybdenum production increased 10% in the fourth quarter of last year compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This was mainly driven by an increase in production at Choquepal and Coajone mines due to higher ore grades at both operations. These results were partially offset by a decrease in production at the Buenavista and La Caridad mines. Molybdenum production increased 7.4% year-on-year in 2025 after production grew at Toquepala and Caridad and was partially offset by lower production at Buenavista and Coajone.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:07:31]
In 2026, we expect to produce 26,000 tons of molybdenum. For silver, it represented 9% of our sales in the fourth quarter of last year with an average price of $54.48 per ounce in the quarter, which is reflected in an increase of 74%. Silver is currently our second backbone. Excuse me, please. Mine silver production increased 15% in the fourth quarter of 2025 versus the same period of the prior year. It was boosted by production growth at all our mines. Refined silver production increased 10% quarter over quarter, driven mainly by increased production at all our refineries. In 2025, we produce 20 4 million ounces of silver, which represents an increase of 15% over the 2024 production level.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:08:44]
This was due to higher production at all our mines. In 2026, we expect to produce 24 million ounces of silver, a slight decrease of 2% compared to 2025. For zinc, it represented 4% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 with an average price of $1.44 per pound in the quarter. This represents a 4.3% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Zinc is currently our third byproduct. Zinc mine production increased 7% quarter on quarter and totaled 46,223 tons. Growth was mainly driven by higher production at the Buenavista Zinc Concentrator and by an increase in production at San Martin Mine.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:09:50]
Refined zinc production increased 2% in the fourth quarter vis-à-vis the fourth quarter of 2024. Zinc production for the full year 2025 increased 36% due to additional production of 52,500 tons from Buenavista Zinc and an upswing in production at our Santa Barbara mine. This was partially offset by lower production at our Charcas and San Martin operations. For 2025, we expect to produce 165,500 tons of zinc.
Q4 and Full-Year Sales Performance
- 💰 Q4 sales reached 1.1 billion year-over-year, with copper sales rising 39%.
- 📊 Byproduct sales surged: silver +106%, zinc +23%, and molybdenum +6% on higher volumes and prices.
- 🏅 Full-year net sales hit a record $13.4 billion, 17% above 2024, driven mainly by byproduct volumes.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:10:31]
Financial results. For the Southern Copper Corporation Q4 2025, sales were 1.1 billion higher than sales in the fourth quarter of 2024. Copper sales increased 39% and volume was up 3%, supported by better prices. In the case of LME, was 21% higher, and in the case of COMEX, 22% higher. Regarding our main byproducts, we reported higher sales for molybdenum of 6% due to an increase of volume of 10% and better prices. Zinc increased its values— the value of sales in 23% due to higher volume for 21% and better prices. Silver increased its value in 106% due to an increase in volume of 11% and better prices.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:11:34]
2025 Net sales hit a record high of $13.4 billion. Topping the 2024 net sales by 17%. This expansion was mainly driven by higher sales volume for molybdenum, zinc, and silver. Growth in sales volumes remain stable— for copper, growth in sales volume remained stable in 2020.
Operating Costs, EBITDA and Cash Cost Trends
- 🧾 Q4 operating costs rose 19% including a $60 million one-time asset-retirement adjustment in Mexico.
- 📈 Adjusted EBITDA reached 7.8 billion for the full year.
- 💵 Net cash cost after byproduct credits fell to 0.34/lb rise in byproduct credits.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:12:05]
Operating costs. Our total operating cost and expenses increased 60 million for asset retirement obligations of the Mexican operations, mainly at the Buenavista one. These cost increments were partially compensated by labor— lower labor costs at the Peruvian operations. The fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was 1.5 billion registered in the fourth quarter of 2024.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:13:12]
The adjusted EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter was 60% versus 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024. For the year 2025, The adjusted EBITDA hit a record high of $7.8 billion, reflecting a robust 22% increase over the figure in 2024. The adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025 was 58% versus 56% in 2024.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:13:48]
Cash cost.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:13:50]
Operating cash cost per pound of copper before byproduct credit was 2.23 per pound. This 3% increase in the operating cash cost was driven by higher cost per pound from the production cost administrative expenses and lower premiums, which were partially offset by lower treatment and refining costs. Southern Copper Corporation operating cash cost, including the benefit of byproduct credits, was 0.10 higher than the cash cost of $0.42 for the third quarter of 2025.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:14:50]
Regarding my products, we have a total credit of 1.77 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025. These figures represent a 3% increase when compared to a credit of 1.81 per pound in the third quarter of 2025. Total credits have increased for zinc, silver, and sulfuric acid and decreased for molybdenum. 2025 Operating cash cost per pound of copper before retrocredit was 2.13 per pound that we reported in 2024. This is a 4-cent increase.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:15:51]
Net of regulatory, 2025 cash cost was 58 cents per pound. This 31-cent reduction in the cash cost compared to the 0.34 increase in byproduct revenue trade.
Net Income, Cash Flow and Capital Investment Program
- 🏦 Q4 net income jumped 65% to 4.3 billion.
- 💸 Operating cash flow rose 8% to $4.8 billion, partially offset by higher working capital.
- 🏗️ Capex of 20.5 billion across Peru and Mexico.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:16:24]
Next income in the fourth quarter was 784 million registered in the fourth quarter of 2024. The net income margin in the past quarter was 34% versus 29% in the fourth quarter of 2024. 2025 Net income hit a record high of 4.8 billion,, which represented an increase of 8% over the 4.4 billion posted in 2024.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:17:35]
This result, which was mainly fueled by higher net income, was partially offset by an increase in net operating assets, particularly accounts receivables. For capital investments, our current capital investment program for this decade exceeds 1.3 billion on capital investments, which reflected a 29% increase year on year and represented 30% of net income in 2025. Given that there is a description of our main capital project in Southern Copper Corporation’s first release, I’m going to focus on updating new developments for each of them.
Tía María Project Progress and Timeline
- 🚧 Tía María is 24% complete with a 800 million already committed.
- 👷 Project has created 3,589 jobs so far and will support 764 direct plus nearly 6,000 indirect jobs at start-up.
- 📅 Construction targeted for mid-2027 completion, with ~30,000 tons of copper in H2 2027 and full 120,000 tpa thereafter.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:18:27]
Regarding the Peruvian projects, I’m focusing on the Tía María project currently under construction at the Arequipa region in Peru. This project represents a landmark investment for Peru and the Arequipa region. The current estimated capital budget is 20.2 billion in exports and $4.6 billion in taxes and royalties over its first 20 years of operation. The project has already created 3,589 jobs with strong focus on local hiring. When operations begin in 2027, Tiamaría will provide 764 direct jobs and nearly 6,000 indirect jobs, demonstrating our commitment to sustainable growth and long-term regional development.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:19:30]
As of December 31st of last year, the company has committed about $800 million to different project activities. Large-scale earth-moving works have mobilized 1.7 million tons of material from the La Tapada deposit. Purchase orders to acquire metallic structures for secondary and tertiary crushing has been issued for the dry area. At the SXCW process level, state-of-the-art technology has been selected for our main equipment. Access roads and platforms, as well as temporary contractor camps, has been completed. Regarding energy supply, all earthworks for the electrical main substation has been completed. Foundation works are currently underway and the transmission line is being built. Next efforts will focus on developing the main and secondary components of the project’s dry and wet areas and setting up a temporary camp.
Other Peruvian Projects: Los Chancas and Michiquillay
- 🛑 Los Chancas remains stalled by illegal miners despite ongoing community and environmental programs.
- 🌍 Michiquillay is a world-class greenfield expected to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually for ~$2.5 billion.
- 📋 Geological resource review has been audited under SEC SK-1300 standards ahead of reserve estimation.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:20:35]
For Los Chancas in Apurímac, As of December of last year, we continue to implement environmental and social programs in the communities of Tapairiwa and Tiapá, which are located within the direct area of influence of the Los Chancas mining deposit. Despite these efforts, the presence of illegal miners within the project area has prevented the project from advancing. In this context, the company continues to take actions with the relevant authorities to regain control of the project area. For the Michiquillay project in Cajamarca, also in Peru, this is a world-class greenfield mining project that we expect to produce 225,000 tons of copper per year with an estimated investment of about $2.5 billion. The comprehensive review of the geological information to estimate the project’s mineral resources has been duly audited in accordance with the SEC mining disclosure standards under Regulation FK-1300.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:21:47]
Subsequently, the company intends to use this information to estimate mineral reserves and develop the corresponding mine plan.
ESG Achievements and Community Investment
- ✅ Buenavista, Toquepala and Cuajone received Copper Mark accreditation for global tailings management standards.
- ⛑️ La Caridad SX-EW plant won Mexico’s Silver Helmet safety award from the Mining Chamber.
- 🏥 Southern Peru leads public-works-for-taxes projects and delivered health campaigns benefiting ~5,000 residents.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:21:58]
Regarding environmental, social, and corporate governance or ESG practices, the company in recognition of our efforts in the ambit of prevention and minimizing risk, our Buenavista mine in Sonora, Mexico, as well as our Toquepal and Coajone mines in Peru received the accreditation from the Copper Mark for compliance with the global industry standard on tailings management set forth by the International Council on Mining and Metals. This accreditation guarantees that best international practices are followed to provide authorities, the community neighboring our operations, and other stakeholders with assurances that operations are safe. For the SXCW plant at the La Caridad Unit in Sonora, Mexico, this unit has been awarded with the Casco de Plata, the Silver Helmet, in the category of metallurgical plant with up to 500 workers.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:23:09]
This is in recognition of its status as one of the country’s safest operations. This recognition, which was bestowed by the Mexican Mining Chamber known as Caminex, it was handed during the opening ceremony of the 36th International Mining Convention in Mexico. And this attests to the company’s commitment to risk prevention and employee safety. In the case of the Peruvian branch, Southern Peru Corporation, was recognized by the Peruvian government as the mining company with the largest number of projects awarded under public works for taxes in 2025. The company is currently rolling out 4 investments for a total of 400 million in infrastructure to bridge social gaps.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:24:17]
In 2025, also about 5,000 residents benefit from the health campaigns conducted in the communities near our mining operation and projects in the Peruvian regions of Moquegua, Arequipa, Apu Rimac and Cajamarca. Teams of specialists in internal medicine, ophthalmology, pediatrics, gastroenterology, among other disciplines, visit communities to provide comprehensive medical care. This is on the nearby communities of our operations.
Dividend Declaration and Presentation Close
- 📅 Board declared a $1.00 cash dividend plus 0.0085 share stock dividend payable February 27, 2026.
- 🔄 Dividend policy continues to balance cash position, cash-flow generation, and capital plans each quarter.
- 🎤 Management ends prepared remarks and opens the floor for analyst questions.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:24:52]
Regarding dividends, as you know, it is the company policy to review our cash position expected cash flow generation from operations, capital investment plans, and other financial metrics at each board meeting to determine the appropriate quarterly dividend. Accordingly, on January 22, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $1 per share of common stock and a stock dividend of 0.0085 shares of common stock per share. This is payable on February 27th of this year to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 10th. Ladies and gentlemen, with these comments, we end our presentation today. Thank you very much for joining us, and now we would like to open the forum for questions.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:25:52]
Thank you.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:25:53]
As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.
Q&A: Cost Guidance and Currency Impacts
- 💱 Costs are more affected by peso and sol appreciation than by local inflation after the post-COVID peak.
- 📉 Operating cash cost per pound is expected to stay relatively flat in 2026 despite slightly lower copper output.
- 💪 Strong byproduct credits, especially from zinc and silver, will continue to support net cash costs.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:26:13]
Our first question comes from the line of Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo.
[Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo Analyst)] [0:26:20]
Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start off with any updated thoughts on your cost guidance and how you’re seeing that shape up, in particular given the currency inflation, your local currencies versus the dollar, anything you can do to combat that.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:26:39]
Mm-hmm. Well, We— I think that we have passed the most— the worst part of the inflation that we had after COVID, mainly. Our costs are currently being more affected by currency appreciation for the peso and the Peruvian sol than specific inflation from from Mexico or Peru.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:27:16]
Okay.
[Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo Analyst)] [0:27:17]
Do you have any guidance on where we might see the cost before byproducts shape up in the next quarter or the year ahead?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:27:25]
Sorry, could you repeat it, please, Tina?
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:27:29]
Oh, sure.
[Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo Analyst)] [0:27:29]
Any guidance on how we could expect to see cost shaping up into the next quarter and year?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:27:38]
No, it’s— for operating cost, we believe it’s going to be relatively flat on a per-pound basis since we will be producing a little bit less than last year. It may have some impact on that, and— but then we have a very strong production of pipe products, which is Southern Copper Corporation that was considered as part of the— as part of our mining operations for last year and this year. So that is going to help us on the credit for sure.
Q&A: Silver Upside and Byproduct Strategy
- 🥈 2026 silver guidance remains ~24 million ounces, though management hopes to exceed it.
- 🔄 Buenavista zinc concentrator is focused on high-grade zinc-silver ore rather than copper.
- 🚀 At current silver prices, silver could become the company’s largest byproduct by value.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:28:16]
Okay, helpful.
[Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo Analyst)] [0:28:16]
I’ll ask one more and hand it off. You know, this past year you started out with a lower guidance for silver production and at the end of the year were able to exceed your expectations. And of course, silver has been, you know, quite hot. Any ability in light of these strong prices to maybe eke out some more tons of— or ounces, I should say— of silver in 2026 than your initial expectations?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:28:42]
Well, we already gave a guidance on the silver production for this year. Obviously, we would like to improve on that, but at this point, that’s basically but we are expecting it’s in silver about 24 million ounces. One thing that we have done in 2025 and we’re still maintaining is that our new zinc concentrator of Buenavista that has arrived to the mine of the zinc area of the mine, we have found a pocket of very good ore grades for both zinc and silver. And that has made us to focus this concentrator that can switch between copper and zinc to focus only on zinc. So that’s one of the reasons why we have a much stronger silver production in last year regarding silver specifically and zinc.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:29:55]
We’re still working in that area, so that’s why we’re holding to a very good silver expectation on production and hopefully could improve. Okay.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:30:10]
That’s helpful.
[Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo Analyst)] [0:30:11]
Thanks very much.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:30:11]
Best of luck.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:30:13]
Sure. Let me say, Tina, that if we were to have the prices that we’re having for silver this year with the expectation of production that we have, silver may become our main byproduct.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:30:35]
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Emerson Vieira from Goldman Sachs.
Q&A: Molybdenum Outlook, Cuajone Expansion and Tía María Capex
- ⚙️ Lower molybdenum grades in certain mine areas explain the 2026 production decline forecast.
- 📝 Cuajone expansion study is still being prepared for board review; no investment decision yet.
- 💵 Tía María 2026 cash outlay is now ~$508 million thanks to better vendor payment terms, with no delay to mid-2027 start-up.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:30:45]
Hi guys, thanks for the time. I have a couple of questions. First one on byproducts, just trying to understand here better the reason why more than production in 2026 should decline. I understand that you guys have been prioritizing zinc production at Buena Vista Zinc Concentrator, but that production should also decline in 2026. I’m just trying to listen here the reasons for the declining market predictions for next year. That’s the first question, and then I’ll follow up with the remaining ones.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:31:19]
Okay. On the molybdenum production, you mean the production because it was a little bit cut when you speak Emerson. You meant the molybdenum production?
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:31:32]
Yeah. I mean, yeah, for 2025. Southern Copper Corporation and 26% on 26%.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:31:39]
We’re getting into some areas of the operations where we have lower ore grades for both copper and molybdenum. Usually molybdenum could improve a little bit over— usually in this kind of circumstances we have a little bit more on Lebanon, but at this point, this is what we are forecasting. So hopefully we will be improving on what I mentioned as our forecast for the year.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:32:13]
All right. And then second one on Quahog is concentrator. Can you guys provide us with the latest updates here? When expect an investment decision to be made, for instance?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:32:26]
Well, we haven’t— we have to prepare all the information on a possible Coajone expansion, and that has to be submitted to our board. We haven’t done it yet. We are still working on that, on this project. We see it very positively, but we need to finish our work and present it to the board for All right.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:32:55]
And then the last one on Tia Maria. I mean, the committed CapEx of $800 million is roughly the entire amount that you disburse this year. So I’m just trying to understand here about the timing of this.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:33:14]
I’m so sorry, Emerson. There is some noise when you speak. If you Could you repeat this?
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:33:23]
Okay. I will repeat. On Tia Maria, you guys mentioned that there is already $800 million of committed CapEx, and that’s roughly the amount you guys plan to spend this year at Tia Maria. So just trying to understand here the timing if this CapEx is more skewed towards second half of this year And then in order to deliver the 30,000 tons in 2027, when should the construction be completed in your estimates?
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:33:58]
Okay.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:34:00]
As I say, we are— we have commitments of about 500 million, $508 million is our current forecast for cash out during 2026 related to Tia Maria. Construction should be finished by the end of the first half of 2027, and we are expecting to produce about 30,000 tons in the second half of 2027, and then in 2008 and on at full speed of 120,000 tons per year. All right.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:34:47]
So just to confirm my understanding here, you mentioned that you expect to disburse $500 million in CMI in 2026. That’s it?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:34:57]
Yes. That’s what I said. $508 Million is for current forecast.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:35:05]
And how does that compare to the roughly $900 million that was disclosed in the preliminary guidance? I mean, what’s the reason why this kept in about half?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:35:22]
I’m so sorry, Emerson. Could you repeat it, please?
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:35:26]
Yeah.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:35:26]
I mean, you mentioned that you guys planned to disburse 900 million actually instead of the $500 million. So just trying to understand what’s the reason why the lower disbursement?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:35:54]
We did When we put the specific purchase orders, which are the commitment of $800 million, we obtain better payment terms than what we were expecting initially, and that’s why we have this positive reduction in our cash out for next year. In Tiamaria, obviously, the budget hasn’t changed significantly, so we will be spending spending that money in 2007. Usually you kept a portion of your budget for final payments once the vendor has— or once you have confirmed that the equipment that you have acquired are producing what was offered at the time of the sale.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:36:49]
And this doesn’t imply in any postponement of the project startup, right? I mean, this is the cash flow that is being delayed, but construction will follow another pace, a faster pace, I would say, right?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:37:05]
We’re in line with our— the pace of the investment. We believe it’s going to be finished, as I say, Basically at midpoint of 2027, we should be charging material to the system of Tia Maria and start producing in the second half about, as I say, about 30,000 tons of refined copper for that year and then 120,000 tons, which is the full capacity of the project.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:37:38]
Okay. Thank you very much.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:37:40]
You’re welcome, Emerson.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:37:43]
Thank you. One moment for our next question.
Q&A: Cash-Cost Sensitivity and Five-Year Copper Guidance
- 📊 A ~5% copper volume drop in 2026 would raise unit costs by a similar percentage before mitigation.
- 🌎 39% of costs are in Mexican pesos and 10% in Peruvian soles; 51% remain dollar-denominated.
- 📅 Five-year copper outlook: ~911 kt in 2026, ~900 kt in 2027, 970 kt in 2028, then ~1.06 Mt in 2029-30.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:37:48]
Our next question comes from the line of Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:37:55]
Yes.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:37:56]
Hello, Raul.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:37:57]
Good day. I have two questions. The first one is going back to the cash cost question. If— correct me if I’m wrong, but if production falls some 5% in 2026, then before byproduct, we should expect an increase in cash cost by pounds similar to that number, right? And the second is, can you remind us how much of your cost in the Mexican mines are in Mexican pesos and same for Brazil— I’m sorry, for the Peruvian mines? How much is in tolls just to have a sense of how much it could, you know, impact a depreciation of the— a weakening of the U.S. dollar. And the second question is regarding your long-term production guidance. If we look— first of all, it says that it will be updated in January, the last that you have in the website. Just want to make sure that you have any update or we can continue to work with you this one?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:39:05]
We are doing— let me answer your questions as you did them. In terms of— yes, we are having a reduction in copper production this year, so that will increase our— that alone should have an impact in the range of the 5% that that you mentioned for our production cost. We are doing— we are taking certain initiatives for us to control cost and if possible reduce maintenance expenditures and contractor services, both the Peruvian and Mexican operations. That should help in terms of cost control. As you know, we are quite keen on maintaining costs under control.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:40:03]
The cash—.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:40:06]
The cost in Mexican pesos is 39% of our cost, and the cost in Peruvian soles is 10% of our cost. So we have about 51% of our cost in US dollars denominated. Okay, the next point is—.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:40:28]
Yes, regarding the guidance.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:40:30]
Yes, the guidance, it’s basically for— we’re updating it for this year. You already mentioned it’s $911,400., for 2027, a little bit north of 900,000 tons. We’re being affected by, by lower ore grades simultaneously at Toquepala and Coajone. In the case of Toquepala, it’s a temporary thing. That’s why we are expecting this to correct over time. In the case of Coajone, We are considering an expansion of the Coajone operation so we can bring back the lower production that we’re having given the current installed capacity of Coajone.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:41:27]
For—.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:41:27]
I’m going to give you the forecast for the next 5 years. So 911,400 for this year, a little bit north of 900,000, about, I believe, about the same that we’re doing for 2026. In 2028, we will have the full year of Tia Maria that will bring in 970,000 tons of, as a forecast. In 2029, 1,060,000 tons, and 2030, 1,000,000 tons. Same number, 1 million and 60.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:42:05]
Around 160.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:42:07]
Mm-hmm.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:42:09]
Okay. Thank you. That’s helpful. Just one quick question. In your previous guidance, we can see that Buenavista and Calidad, the production in those two mines were in a downtrend. Is that going to continue after 2030, or what are you expecting in these two mines?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:42:29]
No, we will be taking different actions to put back on track our production on both sides. In some cases, it’s finding new reserves, which is very likely the Caridad circumstance. And in the case of Buenavista, we may consider also an expansion of the capacity of the operation. But these are things that are still under review, so no— nothing that I could report on that at this point. Okay, perfect.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:43:03]
Thank you very much, Adam.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:43:04]
You’re welcome.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:43:07]
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Feng from China International Capital Corporation Limited.
Q&A: Capital Allocation, Los Chancas and Copper Market View
- 💰 Board decides cash-versus-stock dividend mix and has been raising the cash portion with stronger results.
- 🚧 Higher copper prices help project economics but also intensify illegal-mining pressure at Los Chancas.
- 🔋 Demand from EVs and AI data centers supports a deficit view, while Chinese real-estate weakness is a headwind.
[David Feng (CICC Analyst)] [0:43:22]
Hi, good morning, Will, Victor, and team. Congratulations on the strong results. My first question is from a capital management perspective. With the much stronger cash inflow based on current copper price, is it possible to boost your growth plan with the extra cash, or is it more likely for you to increase the portion of cash dividend over stock dividend? I’ll come back with my second question.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:43:55]
I think that in the case of dividends, it’s up to the board. The board has been increasing the cash portion of the dividend as prices and results are coming in. And I guess that they may They may increase the cash portion of it if we have more, better results, but that is up to them. So I can’t comment on that much. Your next question, please.
[David Feng (CICC Analyst)] [0:44:30]
Oh, okay. Thank you very much. So my second question is with the much higher copper price for projects like Las Chancas, We know on one hand the higher price should allow you to leverage more resources to solve the issues related to the project, but on the other hand, the higher prices also provide stronger incentives for illegal miners to continue or even enhance their operations. So overall, does the higher copper price make the— project development, like for— sometimes easier or more challenging?
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:45:12]
Thank you.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:45:15]
Obviously, you want to have better prices than worse prices to move with projects, but we have made these— all of our projects have been evaluated with the prices significantly lower than the ones that we’re seeing nowadays. I think that in general, we are happy of having very good returns with the prices that I’d say it’s more like an average long-term view for us. In the cases— the specific case of Los Chancas, we have had some progress. We had some initiatives taken by the government that will be helping illegal mining, but so far we have— we haven’t— we don’t have much to report at this point. We believe that the government, the Peruvian government, will take action and allow the company to move on with this important project.
[David Feng (CICC Analyst)] [0:46:18]
Oh, that’s good. That’s really helpful.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:46:23]
Mm-hmm.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:46:24]
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mateus Moreira from Bradesco BBI.
[Mateus Moreira (Bradesco BBI Analyst)] [0:46:38]
Yeah, thank you, Mariano, and thank you for taking my questions. My first question is on the copper markets. I just wanted to get your overall view here on copper markets. We’ve been seeing, of course, a very supportive price environment for copper, right, with prices holding near historical highs. However, demand in China appears to be deteriorating at a relatively fast pace, right? So just wanted to see how do you view these dynamics going forward? Do you expect the current price momentum to be sustained? So that’s my first question, and then I’ll come back for the second one.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:47:14]
Okay. On the copper market, we are expecting a deficit.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:47:25]
About—.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:47:25]
We’re expecting a deficit on the market. And that 320,000 tons is our current— the view of our commercial team. In terms of price, it’s hard to know. We are seeing that the— Copper demand is being hauled by electric vehicles, artificial intelligence power centers, and at the same time, we see that, well, the— in several places, particularly in China, the real estate market is not doing well. So that— those are the factors. We were not forecasting copper prices. That is not our business. Our business is to focus on controlling cost and producing as much copper as we can on a competitive base and with high returns for our shareholders. That’s our business.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:48:26]
Okay, perfect.
[Mateus Moreira (Bradesco BBI Analyst)] [0:48:27]
That’s clear.
Q&A: Buenavista Concentrator Strategy and Production Cadence
- ⚖️ Two copper concentrators plus one switchable zinc concentrator remain focused on zinc-silver for now.
- 🔄 Relative prices of zinc, silver and copper are reviewed continuously; strategy will shift if value changes.
- 📆 2026 copper production is expected to be relatively even across quarters despite lower Peruvian grades.
[Mateus Moreira (Bradesco BBI Analyst)] [0:48:28]
And then my second question on the Buenavista concentrator. I mean, I understand you continue to prioritize on the zinc production over copper given the stronger zinc grades in the areas. You’re currently mining. Should we expect this strategy to remain in place for 2026, especially considering these copper prices at these levels? And maybe the question here, is there a copper price level that would incentivize you to shift back your production towards copper?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:49:00]
Okay. Just for knowledge of everybody at the call, we do have 2 concentrators in Buenavista. One is the concentrator that is— that are producing the pure copper, those are copper concentrator. And the other one is— there is one zinc concentrator that can switch between zinc and copper. In this case, we did an analysis at certain points at the beginning of the year. And with the prices that we have had and the prices are still holding in terms— in relative terms between zinc, silver, and copper, and we found that it was in the best interest of the company and our shareholders to focus on zinc production with more— with more silver content coming with the zinc.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:50:01]
Just to be clear, we do have 2 concentrators that produce— that are copper concentrators and 1 zinc concentrator. I believe that I skipped that when I explained this matter. So we’re doing this on an ongoing basis. There is a significant change in the relative prices between zinc, silver, and copper, we will review our strategy. But so for now, and particularly on the areas that we are at the zinc production areas of the mine of Buenavista, it still makes sense to be producing silver and zinc rather than copper. But if there’s a change, we’ll do it in a way that we produce the best value for our shareholders and the corporation.
[Mateus Moreira (Bradesco BBI Analyst)] [0:51:01]
Okay. Perfect. That’s very clear.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:51:04]
Thank you. Thank you.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:51:07]
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Hacking from Citi.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:51:17]
Yeah.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:51:17]
Hi, Raul.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:51:17]
I just have one question. Could you maybe discuss the cadence of your copper production next year? Should we expect Q1 to be the strongest and Q4 to be the weakest with grades in Peru kind of falling through the year or it’s going to be more even than that?
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:51:37]
Thank you.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:51:39]
Going to be more even, Alex. We will be reporting on that, but that’s basically— we’re getting into a low, low ore grade patch for Toquepala. Coajone is more or less stable at the level that it is now, and the reason for that is that Coajone has a new structural ore grade which is lower. That’s why we’re considering an expansion expansion in this operation.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:52:15]
Thank you.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:52:16]
You’re welcome.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:52:19]
Thank you. One moment for our next question.
Q&A: Tía María Execution Risks and Mexican Permitting Climate
- ⏱️ SX-EW plant assembly is targeted for May-June 2027 testing with first refined copper in H2 2027.
- 🤝 Local hiring now exceeds 3,500 jobs and community programs have improved ground-level support.
- 🇲🇽 Relationship with the Mexican government is improving, though no major new open-pit approvals are reported yet.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:52:25]
Our next question comes from the line of Miles Alsop from UBS.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:52:28]
Okay.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:52:31]
Thank you for the opportunity and a great set of numbers. Just maybe on TMRU to start. To start with. How— what is the lead time for an SXEW operation, and what do you see as the key risks in terms of achieving the timeline of first production mid-2027?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:52:55]
Well, the— on that, we do have about 5 SXEW operations in the company currently that are— that we’re working with them. Obviously, where we have selected the newest and best technology that is available for SXEW operations right now. Basically, we are expecting to have the whole plant assembly and operation at the second half 2027. That’s a little bit more than a year from now. We think that— well, at this point we don’t want to have any delays on getting the production that we’re looking for for 2027. Our expectation is to have everything assembled and ready to initiate the test by May or June of 2027.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:53:56]
July ’17, and with that occurrence, we will be putting charge in the equipment and start producing refined copper, which is the final product of Southern Copper Corporation.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:54:16]
And does— how’s the sort of mood on the ground? I mean, there’s a few small protests, I think, in December. I think there’s some more planned for March ahead of the elections. I mean, what’s the sense on the ground in terms of going full steam ahead with the project?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:54:34]
You mean on the Peruvian elections?
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:54:38]
Ahead, yeah, around Team Maria and, you know, obviously stepping up production aggressively given what happened last time and the disruption you suffered.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:54:48]
Well, we know, We believe that the work that we’re doing with the local groups, the population in the area, it’s— well, we mentioned that we have— our initial expectation was to have about 3,500 workers in Tía María. Now we do have more than that. 3,589 Jobs have been created. We believe that the right number now, it’s more in the range of having 5,000 workers when the project is at full speed in terms of construction. This has been very well received by the local population. I think that we made our— the points that this project is not going to be a problem for them but, you know, a big opportunity for the— people at the ICAI province of Arequipa. And what we’re seeing is that they understand this and are focusing on getting either a job opportunity or a business opportunity related to the company or the programs that the company has.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:56:02]
As I mentioned, the company has been investing using the tax for— the Tax for Works mechanism in Peru very heavily. $400 Million has been invested in using this mechanism plus all the other programs that the company has. So I believe that we’re bringing in good news to the population and the locals are understanding that correctly.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:56:29]
That’s encouraging. Maybe just a couple of other small 2 more questions. In terms of percentage of COMEX sales, has that changed meaningfully since last year or is it, you know, broadly unchanged?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:56:44]
We don’t make comments on that.
[Emerson Vieira (Goldman Sachs Analyst)] [0:56:45]
I’m so sorry. Okay.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:56:48]
And maybe the last question then just on Mexico and the ability to get licenses to move projects forward. Has the— has the atmosphere improved? Is it looking more probable we’ll see investments in the mining industry in Mexico being announced during 2026?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:57:10]
We are seeing a better— generally speaking, a better environment in our relationship with the Mexican government. And I think that this is going to be also reflected in the speed that we can move on with projects But so far there’s nothing specific to report.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:57:29]
Have any open pits been approved over the last 12 months or last few years?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:57:34]
I’m so sorry, I couldn’t get what you said.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:57:37]
So have any open pit projects been approved in Mexico over the last few years?
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:57:44]
Well, there are some projects that have been moving on and we have our own of El Arco and some other projects projects that we will keep working on them. But so far on this matter and on our projects, we have no— not much to report at this point.
[Alfonso Salazar (Scotiabank Analyst)] [0:58:01]
Okay.
[Alex Hacking / Miles Alsop (Citi/UBS Analysts)] [0:58:01]
Thank you.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:58:02]
You’re welcome.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:58:05]
Thank you. At this time, I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Raul Jacob for closing remarks.
Closing Remarks
- 🙏 CFO thanks participants and invites them to the Q1 2026 results call.
- 📢 Operator formally ends the conference and releases the line.
- ✅ Call concludes after a comprehensive review of record results and growth projects.
[Raul Jacob (VP Finance, Treasurer and CFO)] [0:58:16]
Thank you very much, Yi Yi. With this, we conclude our conference call for Southern Copper Corporation’s Fourth Quarter 2025 and Full Year results. We certainly appreciate your participation and hope to have you back with us when we report the First Quarter of this year, 2026, results. Thank you very much for being with us today and have a nice day.
[Gigi (Operator/Host)] [0:58:40]
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Connect.
